
The beginning of a new decade tends to inspire thoughts in me of where we might be headed technologically and how that will affect communications. I am anxious to see what is revealed at CES 2010 in Las Vegas. But I am thinking even further into the distant horizon.
I was one of the early adopters of both Facebook & Twitter (especially for someone my age). I admit I found both intriguing early on but grew tired of both well before they exploded in popularity in the mainstream. Once they both finally became a part of the daily routine for most Americans many new uses for the technology emerged and I found myself reinvigorated. This has led to question whether I am dismissing some new web apps and devices too early.
Perhaps the next Twitter will actually be a refinement of an existing technology. Apple has established itself as the premier tech company in the world not so much on the new concepts it develops, but for how they greatly improve existing technology (i.e. iPods, iPhones, Final Cut Pro).
Jenna Wortham of the New York Times recently served up “Five Tech Themes for 2010″ that focused on things like the death of the traditional home phone line and saving notes on the web. But three of her choices have the potential to have a direct impact on how we communicate to each other and the world:
Mobile app stores continue to evolve from kitschy collections of games and novelty programs into robust catalogs of applications that push the limits of what a cellphone can do. So where can we expect to see the next big innovation? External attachments. So far, Square, a device that plugs into the audio jack of a mobile phone, turning it into a credit card machine, has made the splashiest entrance into the market, but that is just the beginning.
I find this area of special interest since we are reaching the point where we have a fairly standard size of handheld devices. To truly take advantage of chip technology inside there is limited space for attachments. Biotechnology and healthcare devices seem to be getting the majority of attention right now. But I could see real potential for churches & businesses as well.
Location, location, location: Start-ups like Hot Potato, Foursquare, Grindr and UrbanSpoon have generated a lot of buzz for their forays into the mobile location-based arena, but it’s only the beginning — particularly in light of the new geo-location features made available to developers and users on Twitter. It’s likely we will begin seeing many more useful location-based applications.
OK, I’ll admit that I am seriously down with location-based apps. I love being able to put my daily experience in context to my immediate environment and sharing experiences with those who drive the same roads and buy groceries at the same place as me. Taking the GPS technology and using it to reach your most prized demographics has a potential to be huge as devices become more prevalent. I have a feeling by the start 2011 that location-based apps will become a major part of our handheld experience.
Web TV: As my colleague Nick Bilton pointed out a few weeks ago, ditching the set-top box and watching TV online is little more than a few clicks away. But while his set-up was admittedly more complicated than simply connecting your laptop to a big screen, it will get easier in 2010. In addition to start-ups like Clicker and SetJam aiming to make it easier to find what you want to watch online, Apple may even start peddling a monthly subscription service that would allow television companies to deliver TV programs via its multimedia software. Companies are getting into the game with services like Comcast on Demand Online that allow customers to watch thousands of TV episodes and some movies via their Web browsers.
As a broadcasting veteran, I can tell you that the TV industry has been anticipating the day when our online experience renders traditional broadcasting pointless. Frankly I was expecting that day to arrive years ago. The proliferation of broadband has helped inch us closer but the experience of watching the web on a 5o” LCD in your living room still hasn’t eclipsed cable or satellite … yet. Many industry insiders thought Apple TV would be the tipping point. But it remains nothing more than a novelty. The growing popularity of Hulu has proven we are much closer.
The collapse of the traditional broadcasting will be devastating for my former colleagues much the way the web is close to rendering newspapers extinct. But it will bring the cost of distribution for churches and other businesses down to a level where anyone can get into the game. That it is both exciting and daunting at the same time. The high cost of broadcast air time has kept the choices limited to those who could at least do a decent job of producing content. But this will change the paradigm completely even more than YouTube or Vimeo.
The key to each of these successes will be finding a standard that is comfortable to everyday users who have become accustomed to simple but powerful. The key to success as the transition to online video content continues is to be prepared to produce compelling programming that will stand out in the midst of a sea of mediocrity. That requires forward thinking and planning. And the start of a new year offers a perfect time for such forward thinking.